On the face of it, as the new school year got underway last week (or not, depending on the weather), there was cause for cautious optimism. Just before the Christmas holidays, education secretary Jenny Gilruth appeared to announce a deal that would draw a line under the wrangling between councils and government over teacher numbers.
The dispute endured for the whole of last year with the government intent on maintaining teacher numbers - but councils refusing to commit to delivery.
The upshot, when the annual teacher census was published in December, was a drop of over 600 staff.
So far, so embarrassing for Gilruth - but hot on the heels of the disheartening official figures came the news of a new deal.
Big gap between rhetoric and reality
Councils, the education secretary said, would get an extra £41 million to restore teacher numbers to 2023 levels in exchange for freezing learning hours and making progress on cutting class contact time.
The government pledged in its 2021 Scottish Parliament election manifesto to reduce the time teachers spend in class by 90 minutes a week.
There was also £28 million earmarked for more specialist staff to support pupils with additional support needs (ASN).
But the chasm between the rhetoric from government and the stark reality of council budget setting has quickly become apparent.
Initially, there was some positive news; Falkirk Council withdrew its plans to reduce the time children spend in school. But the ink on the new deal with local authorities’ body Cosla was hardly dry when further drastic proposals for council spending cuts came to light.
Stirling Council is looking at a range of cuts to education, it has emerged, including a review of its music tuition service with a view to saving £250,000.
The news sparked a petition, which has now attracted just shy of 3,500 signatures and an intervention from the Emmy-winning composer John Lunn.
The petition says if the cut proceeds, it would “effectively mean the end of over 60 years of instrumental and vocal teaching in primary and secondary schools”.
However, the threat to music tuition is just one cut that could hit education.
Cuts target wide range of education services
Stirling Council is also proposing removing funding for school counsellors to save £214,000, as well as cuts to learning support, educational psychology and teacher numbers.
Stirling residents have until early February to feedback on what they think about the proposals but the council is clear: it is facing “an unprecedented financial position”, with “an indicative budget gap of £12.9 million in 2025-26, rising to £51.3 million by 2029-30”.
Yet, Stirling Council is no outlier.
Dumfries and Galloway Council carried out a similar consultation that closed in December. One option it is looking at is halving the number of ASN teachers it employs, to save around half a million in 2025-26, rising to over £800,000 in subsequent years.
It is also consulting on whether it should reduce teacher numbers in line with falling rolls. It estimates that this would save £236,000 in 2025-26, rising to over £2 million in 2027-28.
In both councils, the final decisions will be taken in late February when budgets are set.
In the meantime, the EIS teaching union is balloting teachers in Glasgow over strike action to pressurise the city council into reversing cuts to teaching numbers passed last year, which could eventually see 450 jobs lost.
The ballot was opened by the EIS last Monday as Glasgow City Council continues to refuse to confirm whether or not it will abide by the terms of the deal struck between the government and Cosla. It said any new money will be taken into account as part of this year’s budget-setting process, with the details announced in February.
Less rosy view of government deal
Quickly, therefore, the government’s new deal with Cosla has begun looking less rosy.
Defending the gap between the deal and the cuts being proposed by councils, Cosla has said that the agreement to work towards maintaining teacher numbers at 2023 levels is “Scotland-wide” - suggesting, presumably, that falls in some councils could be mitigated by rises in other councils.
The experience over the past three years, when teacher numbers have fallen year on year, suggests that this is a somewhat naive hope.
Cosla also said there are “a range of example exceptions” to the teacher numbers deal.
In the past, Gilruth said councils could ask for mitigating factors like reductions in Scottish Attainment Challenge funding to be taken into account if teacher numbers fell.
But if progress on the key policy pledge of reducing teachers’ class-contact time is to be made “at pace” - which is Ms Gilruth’s preferred terminology - that can only be achieved if teacher numbers increase.
The disappointing conclusion, therefore, is that the teacher numbers dispute, far from being resolved, is likely to continue to dominate in 2025.
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