The link between student mental health and attendance is one that school leaders have long understood intuitively - but since the pandemic the need to strengthen that understanding with evidence has become increasingly urgent.
A new Department for Education report, published this month, offers an insightful analysis of the relationship between mental ill-health and school absence among students aged 13 to 16.
Some of the findings are helpful in providing evidence for what we previously thought - but other outcomes may challenge conventional wisdom. Here are five key insights that all school leaders should know about.
1. Poor mental health and authorised absence
One of the most robust conclusions in the report is that poor mental health, as measured by the GHQ-12 screening tool, is a statistically significant predictor of increased school absence - particularly authorised absence.
After adjusting for a wide range of contextual variables including socioeconomic background, school enjoyment, family structure, prior attendance and special educational needs (SEN) status, the research consistently showed that students with higher levels of psychological distress were more likely to miss school through authorised routes, especially at higher absence thresholds such as 15 per cent or more.
However, this relationship does not extend to unauthorised absence. Across most thresholds, the report found no meaningful statistical link between mental ill-health and unauthorised absence.
In fact, other factors - such as family composition, parental aspirations and school engagement - were stronger predictors of unauthorised non-attendance. This distinction is critical for schools aiming to interpret patterns of absenteeism more sensitively.
2. Personal wellbeing scores are less reliable indicators of future absence
While mental health scores were found to be predictive of some absence, the same cannot be said for measures of personal wellbeing. These include self-reported life satisfaction, feelings of worthwhileness, happiness and anxiety.
Although students with lower wellbeing scores were slightly more likely to be absent, the relationship was weak and statistically insignificant across most absence thresholds. As the report points out, wellbeing scores are more likely to reflect temporary mood changes rather than sustained psychological distress.
For schools investing in early identification, this distinction is vital. Reliance on “how happy did you feel yesterday?” is unlikely to provide a reliable early warning signal.
3. Students’ relationships with teachers influence both mental health and attendance
The report identifies a near-linear relationship between how many teachers a student likes and their mental health score.
Students who liked all their teachers had the best scores while those who disliked all their teachers had the worst, with each level of teacher dislike associated with a corresponding rise in psychological distress.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, these same students were also significantly more likely to be persistently absent. These findings are a reminder that relationships with staff are central to positive student outcomes.
Creating a culture where students feel valued and seen by the adults around them is protective not only against mental ill-health but also against disengagement and school refusal.
4. Patterns of absence by background are complex
It is tempting to lean heavily on certain risk factors - eligibility for free school meals, ethnic background, SEN status - as the primary drivers of absence. The reality, according to this report, is more nuanced.
For instance, there was little difference in overall absence between students eligible for free school meals and those not eligible, and variation in absence by ethnicity was minimal.
However, the type of absence varied significantly: white students were more likely to have high authorised absences, while students from Black and mixed backgrounds had higher rates of unauthorised absence.
SEN status and long-standing illness were more predictive at lower thresholds of absence but less so as absence became more extreme. Meanwhile, students from single-parent or no-parent households were consistently more likely to be absent and to experience mental health difficulties.
These distinctions matter for how schools target early support and how they understand the stories behind the data.
5. The need for early intervention
The concluding sections of the report are clear: poor mental health builds over time, and so must school responses.
At a time when so much attention is paid to persistent or severe absence, it is easy to neglect the quieter early warning signs - the student whose mood has subtly shifted or who suddenly stops talking about school with enthusiasm.
However, early action not only improves attendance but may also prevent escalation to more entrenched patterns of distress and withdrawal.
Luke Ramsden is deputy head of an independent school and chair of trustees for the Schools Consent Project
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